Väitös meritekniikan alalta, Arsham Mazaheri, M.Sc., MBA
Meriliikenteen sisäisen tiedon hyödyntäminen karilleajon riskien hallitsemisessa.
Arsham Mazaheri, M.Sc., MBA, väittelee 11.8.2017 klo 12 Aalto-yliopiston insinööritieteiden korkeakoulussa, konetekniikan laitoksella, aiheesta A framework for evidence-based risk modeling of ship grounding. Väitöskirjan alan on meritekniikka, merenkulun riskit ja turvallisuus.
Ship grounding accident is one of the most severe threats to the maritime transportation, and thus to the global trade, since more than 80% of the global trade is done through sea transportation. Therefore, it is not surprising that outstanding number of research are conducted so far to model this type of maritime accident and reveal its mechanism. However, questions such as “to which degree such models are helpful for decision and policy makers to mitigate the associated risk”, or “how trustworthy are the results of such models” are still and will always be valid questions.
This thesis is an attempt to shed some lights for such questions. In the first section of the thesis, a framework is proposed to model ship grounding accident using only the evidence in hand. The framework not only encourages to use primary (i.e. raw data and information with no secondary interpretation) and secondary (i.e. information and knowledge that have some level of secondary interpretation) source of evidence for constructing a risk model, but also proposes a method to clearly visualize the uncertainty level of each module of the constructed model. This way, the users of such model can use the results of each module of the model only if the uncertainty of that module is acceptable for them. In the second section, a model is constructed based on the proposed framework and by utilizing the embedded knowledge in ship grounding incident and accident reports as well as the expertise of sea-pilots. The aim of the constructed model and the provided uncertainty map of the model is to help the decision makers to find the riskiest scenarios for a ship grounding accident, and decide on the possible risk control measures to be in placed in order to mitigate the associated risk.
Vastaväittäjä: Associate Professor Marcelo Ramos Martins, University of São Paulo (USP), Brazil.
Valvoja: Professori Pentti Kujala, Aalto-yliopisto, konetekniikan laitos
Väitöskirja verkossa: http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-60-7478-8
Väittelijän yhteystiedot:: Arsham Mazaheri, email@example.com